The message will be clear; the era of American international leadership and predominance is over and a new preeminent power has taken its place. U.S. access to the military facilities on the South China Seas southern flank, however, would shift the regions balance of power in Americas favor. A critical and early Chinese test of U.S. resolve is likely to come in the South China Sea, where Washington has struggled to respond effectively to assertive Chinese behavior. This article examines Chinas behaviour in the South China Sea disputes through the lens of its strategy for managing its claims. Tokyo and Manila agreed to a strategic partnership in 2011. To counter Chinas efforts to control the South China Sea, the United States needs a sustainable strategy to bolster its own capabilities, work more effectively with capable allies and partners, and strengthen the regional order. It was the first time that had ever occurred. Whomever is elected to be the next American president, that person would be wise to have in place a Plan B should the TPP fail to pass the Senate this year (such a Plan B is admittedly unlikely, given that both major candidates would bear responsibility for its failure in the first place). China, Russia and the Munich Security Conference. The strategic importance of the South China Sea is mainly due to its geographical location as the area is one of world's busiest and most strategic shipping lanes. The outcome of that contest will profoundly influence, if not shape, the 21st century world. Such pressure should focus on concrete, near-term objectives, such as putting a stop to reeducation of regime critics. South China Sea and possible options. through South China Sea Port is 1400 kms long. LinkedIn and 3rd parties use essential and non-essential cookies to provide, secure, analyze and improve our Services, and to show you relevant ads (including professional and job ads) on and off LinkedIn. The result has been to heighten tensions and allow Chinese forces to more easily project military power across the region. In recent years, U.S. military planners have shifted their focus from counterterrorism, low intensity conflict to great power, high intensity threats. 2009 China issues two diplomatic notes that appear to claim a majority of the South China Sea. Besides, more than half of the world's fishing vessels pass through the SCS. That claim remained shrouded in a calculated fog of ambiguity until 2010 when Secretary of State Clinton addressed the status of the South China Sea and its sea-lanes at a meeting of the ASEAN Regional Forum in Hanoi. How that competition will evolve remains to be seen, but the very fact of the contest should be understood as a reversal of fortune for China. These factors combined give a strategic importance to the South China Sea that has led to numerous states Brunei, the People's Republic of China, Taiwan, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Vietnam each pressing their own claims to . To understand the statement we have to have a particular knowledge over the issue and have to look over the geopolitical and strategic importance of South China Sea. - Interview with Ana Krstinovska, Russia's Growing Influence in the Middle East: an interview with Alexander Hoffmann, Serbia's Uneasy Balance Between Moscow and the EU: an interview with Suzana Grubjesic, Gulf States' Economic Momentum: an interview with Omar Al-Ubaydli, Prospects for Turkey-EU Relations Amid Tensions, Need to Cooperate and Lack of Trust: an interview with Nilgn Arsan Eralp, Germany's Shifting Stance in the Greek-Turkish Dispute: an interview with Ioannis P. Sotiropoulos, Bulgaria's Economic Perspectives amid Political Uncertainty and Challenges, Saudi Arabia's Reforms, Relations with the United States, and Choice of New Allies: an interview with David H. 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In other words, his primary concern is that the rivalry over the South China Sea could derail Beijing's strong strategic focus on the Taiwan issue.25 Academic perspectives on the South China Sea are important and may actually be quite influential. Recent satellite analysis by the Center for Strategic and International Studies shows that Chinese fishing fleets are engaged in paramilitary work on behalf of the state rather than the commercial enterprise of fishing, the organization reported. The "Implementing the Strategic Action Programme for the South China Sea and Gulf of Thailand" (SCS SAP Project) completed its Inception Phase with the 1st Steering Committee Meeting held online on the 29 and 30 of June, 2021 with official representatives from Cambodia, China, Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand and Viet Nam and the UNEP Task Manager for the project, with the support of . A third of the world's shipping passes through it, its fisheries are critical sources of food for millions of people. Burma, however, is a potential bright spot for the U.S. position in continental Southeast Asia. This access will allow for more frequent, more sustained flights over the South China Sea, including over the disputed Spratly Islands and Scarborough Shoal. multifaceted fiscal and strategic benefits, acting as a magnet for the regional as well as . The area includes several hundred small islands, rocks, and reefs, with the majority located in the Paracel and Spratly Island chains. U.S. Navy/Handout[/caption]. What is more important from a strategic viewpoint, however, is that global energy projections that the EIA issues in the International Energy Outlook, issued in October 2021, make it clear that China and Asia will have a sharply growing dependence on MENA and Gulf petroleum exports that may well extend through 2050. By the mid-1990s, relations with Vietnam had begun a rapidly improvement. This order embodies certain foundational political principles respect for international law, preservation of the real sovereign independence of regional states, a refusal to legitimate unilateral territorial expansion, and the unconditional acceptance of the sea-lanes as a global commons. Chinas rising military power and political influence is generating anxiety and suspicion among some of its neighbours and western powers. In a context of great power competition, the South China Sea (SCS) has emerged as an arena of U.S.-China strategic competition. The strategically important South China Sea is an increasingly prominent stage for the spiraling tensions . As maritime security such as safety and freedom of . When China moved a massive oilrig, theHaiyang Shiyou 981, into Vietnams exclusive economic zone in 2014, Vietnam had limited options to respond, at either the low end or the high. The United States, moreover, should work with its other Pacific alliesAustralia, South Korea and especially Japanto consider ways that they can lead efforts to expand infrastructure investment in Southeast Asia, perhaps by reforming and enlarging the Asian Development Bank or by launching a joint infrastructure investment fund. This concept of regional order links tightly to a broader set of interests, values, and institutions embodied in the post-World War II international system a system that reflects U.S. values, U.S. leadership and is consonant with U.S. interests. No other state in the region can match this increase in projection and rival China due to the economic differences. China has tried to effectively annex the whole South China Sea region as its territorial waters, according to Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI). To counter China's efforts to control the South China Sea, the United States needs a sustainable strategy to bolster its own capabilities, work more effectively with capable allies and partners, and strengthen the regional order. "American aircraft, this is the PLA air force. Japan and South Korea will face a perilous new reality with China in control of the seaborne lifeline of both countries. Historically, Taiwan's pivotal location off the China coast and between Northeast and Southeast Asia has served a variety of strategic purposes for regional powers, both offensive and defensive. It remains entirely plausible that any Chinese strategy could have a long term goal of possessing the power to deny US or western warships access to the SCS, with China largely laying claim to most of the area as it's own waters. The primary challenge to American regional predominance came from Maoist China first through the Korean War and then via communist insurgencies throughout Southeast Asia culminating in the Vietnam War (1963-75). director of the South China Sea Strategic Situation Probing Initiative at Peking . Generally, oil and minerals move north, and food and manufactured goods move south. Less sexy but no less important is a forthcoming arrangement by which Vietnam will allow the United States military to preposition supplies and equipment in Da Nang on the central coast. The South China Sea has become important to the US because of China's challenge to the liberal rules-based order that America has promoted since the Pacific war. Vietnam's coastline bordering the South China Sea is over 3,000 kilometers long. That grouping came under Chinese control an event that went almost entirely unnoticed in the wider world as the drama marking the end of the Vietnam War played out. The geopolitical message was unmistakable: Western expectations that China was transitioning toward political democracy were entirely illusory. It is a rich source of hydrocarbons and natural resources. The three core areas that must be defended and secured are the Malay Peninsula, Sabah and Sarawak. The main route to and from Pacific and Indian ocean ports is through the Strait of Malacca and the South China Sea. The credibility of U.S. security support for allies and partners will be shredded. The South China Sea is considered a "near sea" and its geographic proximity to the mainland is central to the China's strategic imagination and threat perception. Douglas R. Bush, Deterring a Cross-Strait Conflict: Beijing's Assessment of Evolving U.S. Strategy, Rethinking Humanitarian Aid: A Conversation with Michelle Nunn, President and CEO of CARE USA, The South China Sea Some Fundamental Strategic Principles, Brzezinski Chair in Global Security and Geostrategy, Diversity and Leadership in International Affairs Project, Energy Security and Climate Change Program. Hanoi and Canberra have launched a number of security dialogues and are expanding personnel exchanges, ship visits and officer training. Those bases may be vulnerable, but before and at the outbreak of hostilities, they will allow China to project power deep into maritime Southeast Asia, to threaten commercial and military passage through the sea, and to impose and enforce an air defense identification zone.